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Cosmic Rays and the Variation in Cloud Cover the Sun the Clouds 1Ten years ago Dr Jasper Kirkby whilst working at CERN postulated that the sun and cosmic rays will probably be able to account for somewhere between a half and the whole of the increase in the Earth's temperature that we have seen in the last century Global warming he theorized may be part of a natural cycle in the Earth's temperatureHe proposed a research programme consisting of atmospheric physicists solar physicists and cosmic ray and particle physicists from 18 institutes around the world including the California Institute of Technology and Germany's MaxPlanck InstituteUnfortunately he ran into intense opposition and Dr Kirkby was immediately condemned by climate scientists for minimizing the role of human beings in global warming Stories in the media disparaged Dr Kirkby by citing scientists who feared oilindustry lobbyists would use his statements to discredit the greenhouse effect And the funding approval for Dr Kirkby's pathbreaking experiment seemingly a sure thing when he first announced his proposal was put on iceIt has taken 10 years for the project to be refunded as the CLOUD Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets laboratory experiment which CERN believes will show the mechanisms through which the sun and cosmic rays can influence the formation of clouds and thus the climate The CLOUD project will use a highenergy particle beam from an accelerator to closely duplicate cosmic rays found in the atmosphereBut there are a large body of scientists around the world who have pointed to the influence on the climate of the sun and clouds Those with closed minds like David Viner of the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia have this to say about the science of cosmic ray cloud formation we can explain the temperature discrepancy between the surface and the low atmosphere without recourse to this proposalAnd of course it is this attitude that held back research into this area for yearsFigure 10 Solar activity left panel not CO2 levels right panel highlycorrelate with Arctic temperature anomaliesKnowledge of the linkage between the sun and the clouds is not new In the Influence of Solar Activity on State of Wheat Market in Medieval England Pustilnik 2003 we find a seemingly radical hypothesis dating from British astronomer William Herschel who suggested a link between sunspots and wheat prices in 1801 He noticed an inverse correlation between the number of sunspots in the 11year cycle and the price of grain on Earth The more sunspots the finer the weather and the finer the weather the more the grain grows and the more the grain grows the lower the priceIt was resurrected in 1959 by US researcher Edward Ney but it remained a hypothesis even though it could be supported by historical records and statistical associations but were not empirically demonstrated However at the same time as Kirkby proposed his programme Henrik Svensmark and the team at the Danish National Space Center commenced a programme to investigate the relationship between Clouds and Solar WindsSvensmark used a cloud chamber to determine the interaction between cosmic rays and clouds He estimated that the indirect cloud effect in just 5 years was responsible for a 2 decrease in low clouds the kind that reflect incoming solar radiation by day which in turn equates to an increase in surface warming of 12 Wm2 from incident radiation equivalent to some 85 of the IPCC's estimate for the effect of all carbon dioxide increase since the Industrial RevolutionSignificantly the Svensmark Effect only operates in the lower troposphere because there is always more than sufficient ionization of the upper atmosphere to ensure no shortage of cloud nuclei This is important since high thin clouds do not reflect incoming sunlight and are a net warming influence while the reverse is true of low bright clouds The effect then directly influences cooling cloud coverHowever there is also a counterintuitive parallel effect condensation and precipitation will likely reduce the total lower atmospheric concentration of that ubiquitous greenhouse gas water vapour so increasing clear sky radiative cooling It's true that clouds account for roughly onefifth of the greenhouse effect but gaseous water vapour accounts for more than onehalf of the total effect Reduced condensation then would leave an increased proportion of gaseous water vapour with corresponding increase in clear sky greenhouse effect Increased solar activity acts directly on the Earth with a small increase in radiation a small heating effect and an associated increase in evaporation This same increase in activity suppresses cosmic ray penetration of Earth's atmosphere thus reducing available low cloud condensation nuclei This sequence of events increases clear sky and incoming radiation while increasing the already dominant clear sky greenhouse effect from gaseous water vapourThe reverse effect of a more quiescent sun reduces direct solar warming and by permitting the penetration of cosmic rays facilitates low cloud formation which increases reflection of already reduced solar radiation reduces clear sky reduces evaporation and simultaneously reduces the availability of the most important greenhouse gas water vapour through condensation and precipitationThus solar activity has associative positive feedback when more active and negative feedback when less active dramatically magnifying Earth's thermal response to changes in solar activity and explaining how fractions of Wm2 change in direct solar radiation translate to many Wm2 effect between positive and negative phases of relative solar activityGood cloud data is in short supply and covers only the recent decades but we can derive cosmic ray intensity and deduce there has been a general reduction in cloud cover during the 20th Century While Svensmark is hesitant to extrapolate from very short data series always a dubious procedure it is entirely plausible that reduction in low cloud over the period could conservatively be estimated to have increased heating at Earth's surface by 510 Wm2 an amount more than sufficient to account for all the estimated warming over the periodSvensmark theory makes some intuitive sense because over the last century the Sun has been unusually active which means fewer cosmic rays and a warmer climate on Earth The sun still except for the normal variation due to sun spot activity which at present is nearing the end of an 11year cycle is also coming to the end in 2 to 3 years of what is called the Grand Maximum This also will occur when results are expected from Kirkbys CLOUD experiments As Richard Black Environment Correspondent for the BBC statesIf it does and if Henrik Svensmark is right we should then see cosmic rays increase and global temperatures start to fall if that happens he can expect to see a Nobel Prize and thousands of redfaced former IPCC members queuing up to hand back the one they have just receivedI can't waitBut although results from the CLOUD experiments have not yet been published the Svensmark theory has been subjected to many attacks from Lockwood Frohlich and from Professor Terry Sloan of Lancaster University One would have thought that the best approach from a controversial theory would be to wait until the CLOUD experiments reported results one way or the other But that is not the method of global warming science Every alternative theory has to be trashed in the manner of the quick rebuttal unit' perfected by New Labour

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